Friday, October 16, 2009

Alice In Shale Gas Wonderland

This article was written as a Guest Commentary for The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) of which I am a trustee.

It is hard to know where to begin regarding Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's article entitled "Energy crisis is postponed as new gas rescues the world." But since the speculative world he invokes has more to do with Alice In Wonderland than the hard reality of engineering and science, let us begin - at the end.

Evans-Pritchard caps his evangelistic encomium with this: "I am not qualified to judge where gas excitement crosses into hyperbole. I pass on the story because the claims of BP and Statoil are so extraordinary that we may need to rewrite the geo-strategy textbooks for the next half century."

He admits his lack of gas qualifications but surely he is enough of a journalist - and an economist - to ask some basic fact-checking questions. If he had, he would have discovered that people like Aubrey McClendon, CEO of Chesapeake Energy, have been brazenly hyping shale gas - even employing well known gas expert Tommy Lee Jones to promote the stuff - in the hope of making a fortune. Given that Mr McClendon is reputed to have lost around $2bn in the recent financial debacle, his keenness is perhaps understandable (though he still managed to earn more than $100m last year).

As for BP saying anything earth shattering, according to geologist David Hughes, "(Chief Executive) Hayward said nothing that wasn't in the latest BP report, which wasn't much different from previous BP reports (ie. 60 year Reserves/Production where it has been in past BP reports)."

What none of the boosters want to talk about is the reality of shale gas. It is true that there is most likely a lot of shale gas around, especially in the United States, but after this, the story goes down a rabbit hole. Shale gas is not like the conventional gas finds that gave the US vast supplies of cheap methane. Shale gas is locked in until the rocks holding it are fractured in a process known as hydro-fracing. This requires a lot of work, a lot of wells, a lot of water (2 - 5 million gallons per well), and some rather unpleasant chemicals. Having made all this effort, the production decline rates look like the cliffs at Beachy Head. Within two years production has typcally dropped by 80%.

Not surprisingly therefore, these expensive wells have an average commercial life of less than eight years. Worse still, in August of this year, World Oil pointed out that total production of many wells was only a third of what operators had predicted. Furthermore, of the two dozen or so shale plays in the US, Barnett appears to have the best geological profile and is responsible for 80% of current shale gas. Many of the other plays have much lower gas content density, which would likely mean yet more wells and more fracing for less gas.

But you ask, unlike Evans-Pritchard, if these wells are expensive, what happens if either the price of gas falls or drilling declines precipitously (the former of course being a likely trigger for the latter)? Very good question, because US natural gas has now sunk to roughly half the price of the median break-even price of shale gas. In a nice moment of symmetry, gas drilling has also fallen by half. Of course, drilling can and will increase, but only when the economics justify it. For the moment, it looks like US gas production may decline by up to 14% this year (according to Bernstein Research), which would actually leave the US supply a few percent short, though it will be easy to fill the gap with gas in storage or imports.

There are least two key missing points which make the article so misleading. The first is that shale gas flow rates are always much lower than conventional gas, which in practical terms makes it an expensive and unlikely replacement either for conventional gas or for oil. The second and far more profound omission is that the geology of gas shale varies widely across both America and the world, so that to extrapolate from the best - Texas Barnett shale - to the world is like saying we should be able to grow bananas in Norway just because they grow in India.

Natural gas is a very useful energy source and it emits less carbon than any other fossil fuel. If large, new, easy-flowing sources of it were found, it could relieve some short-term energy worries and reduce geopolitical tensions. However, shale gas, though possibly a useful crutch, is not going to rescue the world, for the reasons outlined above. Alice was finally woken from her dreamworld and brought back to reality by a hot cup of tea. That may not be enough to get us to face the disappointing reality of shale gas.

My thanks to Dave Hughes for his recent presentation: 'Natural Gas in North America: A Panacea to Replace Imported Oil?'

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Technical Trials: Recording Realtime Streaming Audio On A Mac

Much as I love the BBC, like a certain other three-letter entity, it does tend to move in mysterious ways. Or more accurately, downright mystifying ways. Take for instance the unfathomable policies on (not) letting the listener hear programmes online after the initial broadcast time. Some programmes are podcast, some you can listen to for seven days afterwards, and some are just buried in the dark and backward abysm of time, also known as the BBC archive. How I wish that we, the licence-paying public, could have access to what must be the world's richest treasure chest of sound. Yes, I know the licence only comes from TV owners now, but in the good old days, wireless sets (the size of tea chests) were also included.

As it is frustrating to complain about something without offering some kind of solution, I have a small and partial suggestion: record the audio stream on your computer at the time of broadcast and put it in your own archive (for your own personal use only).

On a PC, capturing streamed audio is relatively easy, but on a Mac it is another matter. Things reached boiling point this morning when I badly wanted to listen to a programme about the number of UK politicians being paid for from the public purse, but helping my wife with her final day of preparation before the dreaded GMAT exam was more urgent. I just couldn't get my MacBook to record the audio stream and had to give up and get back to the high-priority task.

But the days of lost streams are over now, because later in the day I was able to take some time off and figure out the mystery of real-time audio capture and what is more, I'll share the secrets with you. First I sent out a desperate SOS Tweet asking for suggestions for audio capture software. Within minutes, five people came back with three suggestions, one free and two not, but having trial versions. I'll deal with the free one first.

Audacity (suggested by @UncompletedWork aka Merrel Davis)
Audacity is free but has two important blocking issues that can be fixed (for free) with some effort. 1) It won't save to MP3 format and 2) it can't capture the Mac internal sound, which is where streaming audio seems to live (commenters may tell me I am wrong).

1) can be fixed by downloading the LAME MP3 encoder library (there's nothing lame about the code - it stands for MPEG Audio Layer III (MP3) encoder). The easiest way to do this is by going to Preferences > Import/Export - MP3 Export Library and clicking the Download button. Otherwise you can download the file from here - the download link is about half way down the page. When that's done and installed (by clicking the Install icon of the downloaded package), click the Audacity Locate button (also in Preferences > Import/Export), which seems to default to the right place on the Mac hard drive, namely /usr/local/lib/audacity/libmp3lame.dylib. (This last step may not even be necessary.) If you think you might need the FFmpeg library for audio in video encoding presumably, you can download this library at the same time - the section for doing this is just to the right of MP3 section.

2) can be solved by downloading Soundflower. After it installs, you will need to set Audacity to use the Soundflower output and (I think) set the Mac audio output to Soundflower. I may have overdone the settings - the speaker seemed to stop working unless one was recording in Audacity - so if anyone has better ideas, let me know in the comments below or tweet me at @juliandarley.

With this done, I was able to able record a snatch of Beethoven's Ninth - in fact the Ode to Joy, believe it or not. Possibly rather grandiloquent for such a small achievement, but more appropriate than Tosca topping herself I suppose (much though I love the opera).

If you don't mind a bit of fiddling and tweaking, this free combination of Audacity, Lame and Soundflower seems to work.

Next I tried Audio Hijack Pro (suggested by @PaulTRussell)
Audio Hijack Pro comes from the slightly worryingly named Rogue Amoeba. However, my sense is that this software won't increase your chances of being infected by any roving pandemics or epidemics. I downloaded and installed the trial version, which apparently will add noise to your recording after ten minutes until you pay for a registered copy (US $32).

As far as I can tell, Audio Hijack also uses Soundflower to re-direct streaming audio to the recording input of this program (again, someone let me know if I have misunderstood this). The main difference from Audacity appears to be that Soundflower is included and installed with Audio Hijack Pro. The program is able to do a lot more than just capture audio streams, including adding all kinds of effects. However, I don't need any of this (I don't think). I liked the fact that if you go to Quick Record, you can select which application (eg Firefox) you want to record from. Audio Hijack Pro has a library area in which you can see your recordings, which could be useful (especially if, like me, you are not all that fond of Finder).

This program clearly does the job, but if all you want is to capture the odd raw radio stream from time to time, then paying $32 may seem like a stretch.

Finally, I tried out the two WireTap products from Ambrosia Software (suggested by @PhilipSheppard, @IrfanHabib and @byrnegreen aka Chris Byrne). The main difficulty here is the price of WireTap Studio ($69) relative to the single, simple task desired and understanding the relationship with its earlier cousin WireTap Pro. My understanding is the following: WireTap was once free, then it became WireTap Pro, which will work in free mode, but will only capture in the AIFF format (which is similar to WAV in size - ie. it's very large). If you want to save in MP3 (as I do) you have to get the licensed version for US $19 or listen to a lady with a very miserable voice telling you every 12 seconds that your recording was made with an unregistered version.

However, to complicate the picture further, Ambrosia no longer supports WireTap Pro, though it did release a last final version for OS 10.5. I managed to track down this official URL and downloaded a trial copy from here. But with the same insistence of their lady announcer, Ambrosia make it pretty clear that they would much rather you bought WireTap Studio. When you install WireTap Pro you get a message and link that says there is a new version - but there isn't. The link takes you to ... WireTap Studio. I think this kind of message is misleading, especially if you have bought the registered version (for $19).

For completeness and following the beseaching of the sad siren voice, I decided to download and install WireTap Studio. Whilst doing this, I noticed that WireTap also seems to use the LAME MP3 library, but it's included and installed without user intervention (which is easier than with Audacity).

I prefer the new interface of Studio to Pro, and it also offers the chance to organise your library of recordings. The trial version of Studio lasts for 30 days, but appears to be a full working version. I like the fact that you can select two inputs at once, though I am not sure you can change the volume of either. A really nice feature of both WireTap Pro and Studio is that you can set the software to record in advance and for a definite time, which could be extremely useful if you have to go out hours in advance of a much desired programme and don't want to record everything before that (which I suppose in the worst case could cause your computer to crash). You will still have to leave your computer on and streaming - I have not seen a sleep state that automatically wakes itself up at a certain time and fires up requisite programs and streams. Maybe it's out there - do let me know, if it is.

Whether the extra horsepower of WireTap Studio is necessary for you will be a personal decision.

To sum up: for just the most basic job of recording live audio streams, Audacity (with Soundflower and LAME MP3) seems perfectly adequate. If you want the extras provided by Audio Hijack or WireTap or don't want the slight hassle of installing Soundflower and LAME MP3, then parting with somewhere between $19 and $69 will be the way to go. I hope all this helps you to listen to what you want or need to when you want to or are able to. It has certainly helped me mitigate (to some extent) the mysterious (though often wonderful) ways of the BBC.


Thursday, July 2, 2009

Why Bother With Twitter?

An old friend of mine from graduate school in Texas wrote to me today to let me know that he had finally become a tenured professor (in Colorado). He was now looking forward to writing another book and, as he put it, professin'. Leaving aside the issues of tenuredom and academic freedom, the question I wanted to ask him, especially given that his area covers communications, was, Why don't you use twitter? He sends out daily emails of broad interest to a large number of people he knows, so why not share the love more widely? His answer was: give me some reasons to bother with twitter and maybe I'll try (again). This is my attempt to justify his bothering with twitter.

Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, twitter offers what is sometimes called ambient awareness. It's more like the sensation one has of being in a village or other community, and say bumping into someone on the street and having a three sentence conversation, or chatting to someone in a shopping queue or seeing someone in the park or seeing another parent when meeting your children from school. In Italy and Spain these kinds of events can happen in the piazza as well as elsewhere. In Britain we still have some pubs (public houses) remaining, which are actually designed to create accidental and one might hope felicitous rendezvous.

The kinds of conversations and interactions that are engendered by meeting accidentally are, I believe, actually of profound importance however they happen. It seems as if there is a part of the brain that actually needs and attaches special value to aleatoric (throw of the dice) or serendipitous meetings and messages. These events serve to reinforce existing message streams or introduce new ones and sometimes, perhaps surprisingly often, act as the capstone to action. That is, they are the final trigger that causes you to read that book, go to that cafe, ring that old friend etc. Even without the capstone tendency, any single tweet on its own is unlikely to be of overwhelming significance, but in context they start to add up and reinforce the virtual, physical and ideational worlds.

One of the reasons why twitter acts to build up social resonance is the act of retweeting, in which you rebroadcast a message to your circle of 'followers' that you have seen in a message from somebody else, either that you are following or that you have discovered by a search or seen in a hashtag web page (see below for more on hashtags). Even if the person you are 'retweeting' is not following you, they will see just that message and therefore will know that you are favouring their message. Sometimes that may cause that person to start following you, which is always pleasant.

I find that twitter works particularly well in concert with physical meetings. In fact, i would say that a lot of the meetings and events I now attend are the direct result of information and recommendations that come to me via twitter. In addition, because many people are happy to reveal their locations, via their iPhones (or similar) you can tell when someone you know is coming to town. Even if they don't enable that feature or don't tweet from a mobile (or cell) phone, many people announce that they are in a certain place or visiting something well known, such as the Louvre. If you are nearby and you spot this, you may be able to arrange a meeting.

Another vital feature of twitter allows you easily to find new interesting people and then see whom they find interesting, or at least whom they have decided to follow. Because you don't have to have permission to follow someone, it's a very fluid and effortless way of building an affinity circle. Thus it becomes an extraordinary way of finding ideas, books, thoughts, events that there is almost no chance of discovering on your own, especially as one may increasingly follow writers and doers of increasing eminence and also see the conversations they have (the ones they have on twitter, at least). Twitter also has the potential to make it easier for people with talent to get the attention of the world.

With twitter, it is much easier to help groups of like-minded people get together, either occasionally to create 'tweetups', or more regularly, such as the #Tuttle gathering in London, which meets every Friday to discuss in small ad hoc groups social media and anything else that catches the breeze.

Another interesting matter is that the twitter demographic is apparently mostly over 35 years old. If you are generally interested in serious discussions, especially about democracy, politics and philosophy, then given that research tends to show that in English-speaking cultures at the moment, people tend to become more engagé in the second half of their lives, then twitter is likely to be an increasingly happy hunting ground. Reinforcing this, it would also appear that twitter users are more likely to be progressive, which is likely to match the profile of many academics, including the one I am trying to persuade with this epistle.

Yet another way of finding information and people to follow is by looking at #hashtags web pages. These allow you to see messages from anyone who uses that hashtag, whether you are following them or not. For instance #reith2009 ( collects all the comments of those who are listening to this year's Reith lectures by American political philosopher Michael Sandel. Most of the comments are careful and thoughtful; some are even profound.

As further evidence against the case that twitter is merely trivial, it played a seminal role in the recent Iranian election and has surely proven the significance of microblogging. Twitter may not have actually changed the final outcome in Iran, but my goodness, it has got the attention of those in or around power all round the world, including, for instance, @GideonRachman, the Financial Times chief foreign affairs commentator, former Economist writer, and not an easy nut to crack.

In these ways and more, twitter has created access to an extraordinary and interactive body of people and knowledge. So I have asked my professor friend give twitter another try. To him I would say try letting your followers know what you are writing or reading, and if possible, say why (in my opinion, you can use more than one tweet for this kind of thing - there are no rules against chain tweeting).

My friend is a Dewey scholar and pragmatist, and I would like to think that pragmatists will appreciate twitter's practical value. Be that as it may, my twitter moniker is @juliandarley and I become further convinced of twitter's value with each passing day. I am also convinced that the sooner the academic world embraces the twitterverse and shares its wisdom more widely and easily, the better the state of knowledge of will be.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

How To Survive Whilst Waiting To Thrive? [for]

Guest blog for

The New Sustainability: Surviving While Waiting To Thrive
"Not many months ago it was not good form to make serious comparisons between the current global economic recession and the Great Depression. Now it is becoming almost fashionable."

How are green companies and green strategies going to survive the economic crisis? Read more...

Delivering The New Green Economy

There is much talk in and on the air about whether the various economic stimulus plans being discussed and deployed around the world will work. Many of the plans have some sections devoted to greening the economy, for instance promoting more energy efficiency, less waste, and the generation of more renewable energy.

It has been pointed out that to a considerable extent policymakers and economists are flying blind in what a British minister - a close ally of the prime minister - has recently called the worst recession in more than a century, surpassing even the Great Depression. It certainly feels very hard to know what, if anything, will successfully get a nation or the world out of this self-induced catastrophe.

What all of the stimulus plans have in common is that they all desperately want to create jobs. Undoubtedly, if enough money is spent in the right ways then jobs will be created. Whether they will be enduring jobs is another and very important matter, but it is not the point of this piece. In the short run, then, we'll be able to measure the success of job creation quite simply by following the statistics on employment issued by nations. What is much harder to measure is how effective any of the 'green' measures will have been.

The problem comes in at least three parts: despite years of effort, it has proven difficult both to develop and to deliver green programs and policies and to measure their outcomes. If social scientists like Tim Jackson and Doug McKenzie-Mohr are right, there is something quite simple that we can start doing about this suite of problems, and if we don't, it is quite likely that we'll get the same dismal results that many others have had when they have tried to green the economy or even just small parts of it.

There is a lot of literature from social psychologists going back more than thirty years about how individuals and groups react to different methods of 'green' persuasion. Some techniques are quite effective and other techniques are so ineffective that they make a bad situation worse. For instance, just giving people more information, which is the most common strategy employed by both government and many green groups, very often falls into the latter category.

To illustrate this, researchers in Canada took two groups of householders and gave one group information about the benefits and financial savings to their community of watering their lawns less while the other group were much more actively coached and helped in how to reduce their water usage. The second group cut their lawn water usage by more than half. The first group actually increased their lawn watering.

This reaction is not an anomaly - there is increasing evidence that citizens and consumers become confused when bombarded with too much information, and their confusion may easily lead them to turn away from engagement in annoyance or become paralysed into gloomy inaction.

In another unfortunate example, a California energy utility spent more money on advertising the virtues of energy efficiency than it would have taken to have simply insulated the houses whose owners were being targeted. More widely, utilities spend billions of dollars on information programs which may well be a near complete waste of money.

Research shows that human actions, especially habitual ones, are very complex in their causes and pathways, and are very difficult to change. But there are some known techniques which work much better than others - the Canadian example given is not an isolated one-off. The real problem is that policy-makers, program planners and business leaders seem not to know about this important body of work.

With trillions of dollars about to be spent globally, at least in part aimed at developing a sustainable future, the research work on what policies deliver results and which tend to fail needs to be discovered and taken notice of urgently. If not, this possibly unique opportunity to deliver a more sustainable economy, may be still born.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

China Enters A New And 'Interesting' Phase

Making observations about geopolitics is often hazardous even for the seasoned analyst - events have a way of intervening in the most embarrassing ways. As we have seen with the economic crisis, a small number of economists did accurately warn about the coming meltdown and were roundly ignored by those in power, who universally said that there was no chance of a recession until the economy was already capsizing.

This is not to blame anyone for this state of affairs. Hindsight is a splendid thing, and when trying to operate in real time, one has to deal with human systems which are (too) complex and inter-dependent, wherein any move is usually met by a quick and often unexpected counter-move or a gambit to exploit an inadvertent opening. Natural eco-systems are not very different most of the time.

The above preamble is a kind of disclaimer. Despite the likelihood of being wrong in prognosis, there are some big picture items that we just have to try to diagnose and discuss even if we don't have the complete picture or anywhere near. One of these is the situation in China. There are several nations that have a disproportionate effect on the world, and China has become one of them. China has been a famous enigma for a few thousand years and it doesn't look as if that will be changing any time soon.

Until recently, it has become the done thing to say that the Chinese economic miracle will carry it through to being the largest economy in the world, and that along with the rising India and a possibly resurgent Japan, the centre of the world will keep shifting towards the East and South Asia. It is possible that this is what will play out, but it might happen in unexpected ways or not all.

The economic crash has taken China by surprise, as it has every other country. The reduction in economic activity is causing a huge increase in unemployment, which is not easy to cope with in any country (neither for those without jobs nor those trying to govern), but in China the situation is rather more tricky, because every year it has to absorb six to eight million new migrant rural workers into the eastern industrial and heavily urbanised part of China.

It is said that every percentage point of Chinese growth (per year) creates about a million jobs. One can readily see why it is necessary for China to grow at a rate in excess of 8% per year. Anything less risks social destabilisation. However, China's growth is showing signs of falling below this number (leaving aside the question of whether the growth figure may be exaggerated).

Signalling that all is definitely not well with the Chinese industrial machine, some 20 million of the roughly 130 million migrant workers are now reported unemployed. This number does not show up in official unemployment statistics because migrant workers are not counted. There is little question that such a huge number of displaced unemployed people showing up in the poverty-stricken villages of China has the potential to cause trouble.

The Chinese leadership is only too painfully aware of the situation and is trying to introduce policies to stabilize and reverse the economic decline. They are doing this for a number of reasons including the fact that they don't want to see social order break down (which government does?) and they also see signs that the economic miracle has promoted the regions too much leading to an age-old problem of local and potentially uncontrollable power bases developing.

It is therefore imperative that the Chinese economic stimulus, now underway for two months, work quickly and effectively. Specifically in response to the rural migrant worker problem, the measures include subsidies and training programmes, and encouraging the formation of new small businesses, though there is little optimism that the latter will have much traction in the poorest, most cash-starved areas, at least in the short term.

Rural health care systems are being proposed, and much more boldly, China has just announced that it will spend $123 billion to provide universal health care within two years instead of eleven. This in itself could relieve a lot of potential social and economic tension (as it might in America, were it ever to be tried).

The economic stimulus package is also going to spend massively on constructing new inter-city rail lines - $88 billion is proposed, with $44 billion having already been spent last year. If China were able to power these trains with renewable electricity instead of coal or imported diesel, it would have moved a long way to having a sustainable transport system. Given Chinese expansion in wind and solar PV, such an idea cannot be ruled out.

The Chinese leadership knows there is plenty of trouble with the country, but they are certainly taking vigorous action. There are signs of incoherence and conflicting policy aims, but China has weathered these before. With the petroleum price now fallen so far from last year, however temporarily, and waning industrial activity, China is importing less oil even as it builds its own new strategic petroleum reserves.

There are many other problems besides those mentioned here and the stimulus and other policies may not all work as intended. But for the world, the consequences of China's new path may be easier to grasp, however unwelcome in some quarters, because whether China succeeds or not, it looks like it will start pulling back from the heavy emphasis on global export trade as it concentrates on domestic development. It should be noted that it is unlikely to pull back from its need to import oil, especially if the domestic stimulus works.

A withdrawing China would have some interesting effects to put it mildly, and one of the most interesting would be if China starts liquidating its holdings of US treasuries just when America needs China - and anyone else - to start buying even more. China has withdrawn from the world before, but this does not appear to be what China is planning now, rather a refocusing on domestic issues and infrastructure, not least because it does not wish to emulate the kinds of collapse that the economies of Japan or the Asian Tigers underwent after growing too fast.

It is a trite and now cliched saying, but China really does look as if it is heading into 'interesting times', with both danger and opportunity in its own future and in its relations with the rest of the world. As a broad brush stroke, that much at least is not too hazardous an observation. The unfolding details may be another matter.

Sources: NYT, WSJ, Reuters, FT, Stratfor: Baker Friedman, CIA, P&C

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

A Cheer For Critical Thinking [O'Reilly blog]

Even in hard times we should still apply critical thinking to the strategy and products of science and technology, rather than being tempted to cheer uncritically. Read the full article on my O'Reilly blog page: 'Cheering For Green Tech - Critically'

Friday, January 23, 2009

Some Observations On Social Media

One of the advantages of living in San Francisco is that you can meet people who are in the thick of all things online and web 2.0. Over the last couple of days I have been to three different events with a social media or social networking focus. I shall be writing about these matters in more detail in the future, but for now, a few things seem clear(er):

1) Although there is a torrent of information about social media both online and offline and there are even ways of making money from it (indirectly) if you are good at SEO (search engine optimization) and SMO (social media optimization), the key for most people will be to stick to what you love - blog, talk or tweet about what you are really interested in and like doing. Be natural, don't try to fake it and don't try to sell anything too overtly - think about giving rather than taking. Blunt selling messages don't work, unless perhaps you are trying to sell your old sofa for five bucks (3.85 euros). Even then, CraigsList would probably be better.

2) The world of social media has not yet been professionalized and the worlds of marketing and advertising are still feeling their way. Somehow some of the services like twitter, Zannel etc are going to have to be seriously monetized, because as we saw in the first era and will see now even more, given the credit crunch and worse, if the tools that make social media possible don't make any money, ultimately they will go away. Advertising is not an easy sell in the social media context for many reasons, but maybe the confluence of many strands, including audio and video and various forms of interactivity, will make it possible for enough money to be made to keep the social media superstructure in development and maintenance.

3) Despite the missing business model and despite the grim times, the world of social media is fantastically vibrant and upbeat, especially here in San Francisco, where many of these services have started. Even so, I think everyone realises that at some stage the champagne has to be augmented with some meat and potatoes. From what I can see, the people at the forefront of social media were strongly involved in web 1.0 and many have quite fresh and hair-raising stories - and wounds - to prove it when things went wrong in 2001. Making social media financiall sustainable is a real and insistent question.

4) Audio and video recognition and search tools don't work very well yet, which may hold back audio-video from becoming a really integral part of social media. There is a lot of work being done on this and there should be no underestimating how difficult these kinds of pattern recognition problems are. The predictions of the 60s and 70s regarding voice and video recognition, not to mention Artificial Intelligence, have been hopelessly even ruinously optimistic. Even so, it would be great to see a lot of progress in this area (maybe some of the TARP money could be directed into this?).

5) At sfAMA Charlene Li talked about the need to tie different elements of social media together, including, for instance, single sign-on and cross-application information mining leading to applications being much more integrated. There are signs that this is happening with OpenId and ways in which Facebook and other similar apps can receive feeds from other streams. There are of course security and privacy issues that may be very knotty and should not be underplayed.

6) There is no substitute for real life. Believe it or not. But that can be a huge advantage of social media - it helps bring people together in real life, for talking, laughing, dancing, eating, you name it, and it keeps you connected in between. You don't have to join a mailing list, and you see (parts of) all kinds of conversations that can keep you in the loop, keep you feeling connected and belonging, and very often inform you of an event you had not heard of. In some ways, it's like being in an old fashioned pub - you hear a snatch of conversation and go over and listen or you see someone you were not expecting and are able to connect. People seem very friendly about this and non-cliquish, thank goodness.

In sum, there is a refreshing air of conviviality and inclusiveness about social media, especially twitter, which is so lightweight and inviting without being burdensome. Social media is about joining and belonging, and more than ever, in our fractured contractarian societies facing great economic hardship, anything that helps people connect in diverse yet guilt-free ways can help increase life chances and work chances.

I am willing to bet that through social media trust, social capital and mutual reciprocity are all being augmented, along with an increased awareness of common pool resources, but I don't have the data to prove it (yet), but I can say that social media are fun and an extraordinary resource and definitely increase levels of serotonin and oxytocin by somewhere between one and 100%. Or maybe more.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

The Great And Most Fortunate

The Great And Most Fortunate - not to mention Invincible - Spanish Armada set sail late in May in 1588 from the occupied port of Lisbon. Philip II was not pleased with Elizabeth I and was determined to put a stop to her activities by invading and conquering England. This would also disrupt some Dutch operations which were harming Spanish interests and prevent the British from attacking Spanish ships laden with gold and silver plundered from South America.

The slight problem was that the mission was an abysmal failure and helped to bankrupt Spain. Again. Yet Philip II later assembled more armadas which also failed. And his policies caused Spain to suffer more bankruptcies. Spain once had the largest empire on the planet, but it was based on flimsy economic foundations and poor policies and once decline set in Spain never really recovered.

Is Spain unique? No. Military adventures and associated expenditures have bankrupted or ruined country after country, and in even the more successful empires, the gains whilst impressive-seeming from some points of view, are always temporary.

It is possible that if someone is going to attack you, you might conclude that you had better attack them first rather than be slaughtered. This unfortunate and destabilizing behaviour seems to be inherited from some of our primate ancestors. However, it is not an iron law and it surely doesn't explain all modern military aggression, and even if it did, I think that rational leaders would look at the long-term costs and should conclude that wars don't pay.

In particular, the wars started by America since the end of World War II, seem to have been very bad value for money, even if to an increasing extent it was someone else's money. Looking at the fascinating and not much studied Bretton Woods money system, it is surely reasonable to conclude that whatever flaws it had (plenty), from America's point of view it was a very useful system and that it was brought down principally by the costs incurred by the Vietnam War.

It is possible to argue that the ending (officially in 1973) of the Bretton Woods agreement was one of the factors that allowed the recent, and now clearly disastrous, economic bubbles to form. However, it can also be argued that some of the seeds were planted by the agreement itself, in particular that Bretton Woods allowed the US to live beyond its means, a habit which once cemented in by the unique operation of the dollar, continues to this day.

In particular, America has used its special relationship with the world monetary system to build up a staggering and frightening military machine that it is all too willing to use overtly or covertly (by arms sales for instance). Few people think this is good for the world, and only a minority of Americans now appear to think it is good for America.

Why have such a huge and expensive military capacity? Which nation is going to attack the US mainland directly? The British tried it a couple of hundred years ago, but they seem to have been quite friendly lately. Mexico or Canada? Not very likely, since each nation is massively dependent on exporting goods and resources to the US, particularly energy resources.

Therein lies a clue. America's dependence on foreign oil imports is one of the reasons why it could argue that it needs a huge military. Interesting then to consider that the cost of running that military, not including the extra amount required for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (not to mention the war on terror and the war on drugs) is about the same as the amount that America pays for all its imported oil - very roughly half a trillion dollars.

The good news is that if the Fed's printing presses ever run out of ink or the Chinese stop buying US treasuries, Washington could always put the military on unpaid leave for a decade or two and use the money to pay the oil import bill. Any pennies left over could be used to buy some wind turbines and solar panels, thus delivering both fiscal prudence and energy security, which should please politicians and public of every stripe and help America avoid the fate of nations that fight too many wars.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

'Terroir': Creating A Sense Of Place

"Tell me where is fancy bred, or in the heart or in the head? How begot, how nourished?" Shakespeare asks. And replies "It is engender'd in the eyes, with gazing fed."

Looking at the picturesque town of Epoisses in France I at least can easily agree with Shakespeare, and making a sort of bad pun for which the bard had a weakness, one might add it is fed by grazing too, since Epoisse is famous for its cheeses.

The picture shows the cheese-making enterprise of Jean Berthaut. Making this cheese is a complicated art, involving washing (the cheese) with salty water, then by a month in a humid cellar, followed by more washing, now with a mix of rainwater and a rather lethally strong alcoholic spirit called Marc de Bourgogne - not just once, but two to three times a week.

Much of this process is dedicated to the matter of ripening the cheese, called affinage. Quite reasonably enough it is carried out by an affineur, who also rotates and nudges the cheeses (a little like the remueur who twist the champagne bottles - a process known in English as riddling).

I tasted some of the rich and delicious Berthaut Epoisses cheese today (in San Francisco, not France) in the presence of the master cheese-maker himself, which is what prompted me to find out more.

French cheese is an ancient tradition, and like wine, terroir is a central concept. Terroir means land, but the real essence of the word does not translate into English very easily, but a key element is a sense of place, of being rooted somewhere. Terroir points to the unique aspects of soil, climate, situation and farming methods used to produce certain kinds of food like cheese and wine (though it can also apply to tea and coffee).

The quality of being 'rooted' is becoming increasingly rare for many of us, but the story of many of the old cheeses (and wines like champagne) is actually also one of serendipitous experimentation, which serves as a reminder that a sense of place and of traditions which in turn give people a sense of belonging all have to be invented by people trying different things out.

Many people will be trying new things out today, whether they want to or not, but one of the fruits may be new senses of terroir and belonging, as well as a renewed sense of the importance of local food whilst having the chance to learn from other places, directly and indirectly.